The Letby files: A forensic analysis of the evidence against the killer nurse by GUY ADAMS... and the truth about what may point to her innocence

Lucy Letby's execution proceedings astatine Manchester Crown Court was 1 of the longest successful British ineligible history, lasting 10 months and culminating successful 110 hours of deliberation by a assemblage of 8 men and 4 women who yet ­convicted her of murdering 7 newborn babies and attempting to execution six more.

There has followed a 2nd trial, successful which she was recovered blameworthy connected different attempted execution charge, on with 2 unsuccessful appeals which failed to overturn those verdicts, for which the 34-year-old caregiver is present serving the remainder of her beingness down bars.

The full process, which spanned astir 2 years, saw 2 antithetic juries and 4 of the astir elder judges successful the onshore reason that Letby was 1 of the astir prolific serial killers of modern times – a presumption shared by police, prosecutors and galore of Letby’s colleagues astatine the Countess of Chester Hospital.

Yet its aftermath has seen a tiny but increasing service of sceptics – ranging from tin-hatted conspiracy theorists to respectable statisticians and aesculapian experts – determine that overmuch of the grounds against her is profoundly flawed. Some present reason she’s the unfortunate of a grotesque miscarriage of justice.

Here, arsenic the chorus of divisive scepticism grows, is simply a forensic dissection of the important areas of grounds the lawsuit hinged connected – presenting the arguments for guilt and innocence for each one.

Today, successful Part One of his ­compelling analysis, Guy Adams covers Letby’s ‘suspicious’ searches connected Facebook for the parents of children she was accused of harming, the ­‘confessional’ jottings she made connected notepaper, the ‘suspicious’ alterations to aesculapian records and overmuch other too to assistance you marque up your ain caput astir the verdict.

Controversial statistics

Case for guilt

A illustration presented doubly to the assemblage elaborate each 25 ‘suspicious events’, including 7 deaths and a fig of abrupt ­‘collapses’, involving newborn infants connected the Countess of ­Chester Hospital’s neonatal portion implicit a 13-month play starting successful June 2015.

They were plotted against the displacement patterns of each 39 nurses employed there.

The array revealed that Letby was connected work each azygous clip 1 occurred. No different workfellow was astir connected much than 7 occasions.

Prosecution barrister Nick Johnson KC argued she was the ‘one changeless presence’ erstwhile babies were taken ill. And aft Letby was taken disconnected the ward, helium noted, deaths reduced sharply.

The array doesn’t incorporate accusation astir a further 9 babies who had died betwixt the commencement of 2015 and the extremity of the play covered by the chart.

However, the chart’s creator, adept witnesser and erstwhile ­paediatrician Dr Dewi Evans, says that’s due to the fact that those deaths were not suspicious. Instead, they progressive 4 children calved with a congenital problem, 1 who was asphyxiated astatine birth, and 4 who died from infection.

Thanks to grounds shared astatine the Thirlwall Inquiry, which started this week, we present cognize a small much astir the deaths not connected the chart.

It seems Letby was contiguous astatine 4 of the 5 that occurred anterior to May 2016 (there was nary information shared astir the aboriginal ones). In different words, adding them to the array mightiness not person helped her overmuch astatine all.

Case for innocence

Critics powerfully disagree. They reason that due to the fact that the illustration covers a comparatively abbreviated play and omits respective deaths and collapses that occurred ­during the applicable timeframe, it is statistically invalid and perchance precise misleading.

Recent past surely offers a informing astir the dangers of relying connected specified information successful court.

Shortly earlier Letby’s trial, a paediatric caregiver from the Netherlands, Lucia de Berk, was freed from jailhouse aft it emerged her 2004 condemnation connected 7 execution and 3 attempted execution charges had been based connected erroneous investigation of statistics.

This lawsuit prompted the Royal Statistical Society to contented a insubstantial titled ‘Healthcare Serial Killer oregon Coincidence’ which warned that ‘unexpected ­clusters’ of deaths ‘generally should not beryllium taken arsenic definitive grounds of misconduct’ successful ­criminal cases.

One of its authors, Richard Gill, emeritus prof of ­statistics astatine Leiden University successful the Netherlands, present believes Letby has been a unfortunate of a ­similar miscarriage of justness to that of de Berk.

‘If you privation my odds, I deliberation determination is little than a 1 successful a 100 1000 accidental she’s guilty,’ helium claims.

John O’Quigley, a prof of statistical subject astatine University College London, has told ­reporters: ‘In my sentiment determination was thing retired of the mean statistically successful the spike successful deaths, and each that the displacement illustration shows is that erstwhile Letby was connected duty, Letby was connected duty.’

Such concerns prompted 24 experts to constitute to ministers voicing concerns astir Letby’s conviction.

Their missive read: ‘Possible negligent deaths that were ­presumed to beryllium murders could effect successful an incomplete probe of the absorption effect to the crisis.’

A signatory, Professor Jane Hutton of Warwick University, told the BBC: ‘The enactment down the stats presented to the assemblage appears not to person been done successful the mode that it should be.’

Her suspicious Facebook searches

Case for guilt

Letby repeatedly trawled Facebook looking for the ­parents of babies she was accused of harming.

Data obtained by constabulary revealed that she’d made specified searches astatine slightest 31 times, often precocious astatine night.

Frequently, she would effort to presumption profiles connected the day of a child’s death.

One grieving parent was looked up connected 9 abstracted occasions, including precocious connected Christmas Day. Another had her illustration viewed the infinitesimal Letby woke up aft the nighttime displacement connected which a kid she allegedly murdered had died.

Prosecution barrister Nick Johnson KC argued that the wont revealed ‘voyeuristic ­tendencies’, alleging she ‘took pleasance successful her murderous ­handiwork’ and enjoyed ­observing the trauma it had caused families.

Case for innocence

Letby denied immoderate sinister motive for her societal media activity, saying she ‘regularly’ attempted to find Facebook pages of radical she met during her regular life.

That overmuch does look to beryllium true: the aforesaid constabulary information shows that she made a full of 2,287 Facebook searches during the two-year play that was the absorption of the case, looking up everyone from enactment colleagues to aged schoolhouse and assemblage friends, to radical she met astatine her Salsa class. A specified 1.3 per cent of those progressive bereaved ­parents. Or astatine slightest the bereaved parents astatine the centre of her trials.

‘I was ever connected my phone,’ she testified, denying immoderate ‘fascination’ with victims oregon their grief and alternatively claiming to beryllium motivated by ‘general curiosity’.

Odd behaviour

Case for guilt

Witnesses besides accused Letby of making unusual and inappropriate efforts to walk clip with grieving parents.

One, a displacement leader, told the tribunal however she had to repeatedly archer Letby to halt going into the ‘family room’ wherever the parents of a dying infant, Baby C, were cradling their son.

At the time, Letby was expected to beryllium caring for a antithetic kid successful a abstracted nursery.

‘Lucy went into the household country a fewer times and I asked her to travel retired and permission that family,’ the displacement person testified.

Baby C’s parents said Letby astatine 1 constituent walked successful carrying a ventilated handbasket and told them: ‘You’ve said your goodbyes, present bash you privation to enactment him successful here?’

The begetter recalled: ‘This remark shocked us. My woman said: “He’s not dormant yet.”’

Another witness, the parent of Baby I, said Letby was ‘smiling’ arsenic she bathed her dormant child, and astatine 1 constituent offered to instrumentality a commemorative photograph of the infant’s corpse.

‘She kept going connected astir however she was contiguous astatine the archetypal bath and however [Baby I] had loved it,’ the parent said. ‘I wished she’d conscionable halt talking.’

Then came Child P, a triplet who collapsed successful June 2016.

Shortly earlier his death, Letby astonished colleagues (who thought helium would marque a afloat recovery) by predicting ‘he’s not leaving present alive, is he?’

She past dressed the body, took photographs for a ‘memory box’ routinely handed to bereaved families, and commiserated with the parents, who recalled: ‘She was successful pieces, astir arsenic upset arsenic we were.’

Prosecutors alleged that specified incidents amusement Letby ‘getting a thrill’ from the suffering of victims.

Case for innocence

Letby insisted her antithetic and sometimes animated behaviour towards bereaved parents had been either wrongly interpreted oregon mis-­remembered by witnesses.

She did judge visiting the parent and begetter of Baby C ‘at immoderate point’ but claimed ‘I don’t callback the displacement person having to propulsion maine back.’

Letby further accused the parents of mis-remembering the incidental with the ventilated basket, saying: ‘I don’t deliberation I ever accepted decidedly that’s what I said.’

As to the different interactions, the caregiver did not judge that she behaved successful an abnormal manner successful beforehand of parents, but argued that she was alternatively attempting to assistance the couples process grief, saying astatine 1 point: ‘I was trying, successful that atrocious situation, to [help them] person immoderate affirmative memories.’

Hidden ‘trophies’

Case for guilt

When constabulary raided Lucy Letby’s home, they recovered a treasure trove of documents that had been improperly removed from her workplace.

Under her furniture was a bearer container containing a printed humor state speechmaking for Child M, an babe she was aboriginal convicted of attempting to murder.

A workfellow who took that speechmaking testified it had been disposed of successful the unit’s confidential wastepaper bin.

This container besides contained a insubstantial towel connected which a database of exigency drugs administered to Child M had been written, on with 31 displacement ‘handover’ sheets.

Another container held a further tranche of ‘handover’ sheets including 4 that covered dates successful June 2016 erstwhile some Child O and Child P were killed.

There was a keepsake container with roses connected it containing confidential paperwork from her archetypal nonrecreational shift. Other aesculapian records were recovered successful a bin container successful her store and successful her puerility chamber astatine the household location wherever she grew up.

In total, immoderate 257 handover sheets were recovered, of which 21 included the names of babies she was alleged to person harmed. Some others are understood to see names of children present astatine the centre of further, ongoing constabulary inquiries.

On her phone, detectives recovered a photograph of a sympathy paper she’d sent to the parents of Child I, positive an representation of a convey you missive received from the parents of twins she was aboriginal accused of harming, Child E and Child F.

According to the prosecution, Letby hoarded specified worldly because, similar galore serial killers, she got a ‘thrill’ from compiling a ‘little collection’ of souvenirs.

Case for innocence

Letby argued that each 257 documents recovered astatine her homes were simply items she had ‘inadvertently travel location with successful my azygous pocket’ astatine the extremity of a shift. She’d decided against disposing of them due to the fact that that she had ‘difficulty throwing things away’.

In court, Letby denied ‘fishing out’ Child M’s humor unit speechmaking from a workplace bin to instrumentality location (as alleged by a colleague) saying ‘I can’t recall’ erstwhile asked however it had ended up nether her bed.

Apropos the images of cards connected her phone, she told police: ‘I often instrumentality pictures of immoderate cards I person sent, adjacent day cards – thing similar that.

‘I often instrumentality pictures of them. It was upsetting losing (Child I) and it was bully to retrieve the benignant words that I hoped I’d shared with that family.’

‘Doctored’ aesculapian records

Case for guilt

Letby was repeatedly accused of making ‘fraudulent’ nursing notes which were ‘false, misleading and designed to screen her tracks’.

On respective occasions, the tribunal heard claims that she had altered

timings of captious events to region herself from an infant’s deterioration oregon death. In the lawsuit of Child H, for example, Letby was astatine 1 constituent seen by a registrar attempting to revive the critically sick babe utilizing a ‘neopuff’ resuscitator. Yet notes she aboriginal filed suggested that she was alternatively carrying retired observations connected a antithetic babe astatine the time.

Elsewhere, Letby doubly claimed to beryllium successful a antithetic country erstwhile different baby, Child D, suffered collapses. In fact, witnesses said, this kid was successful her care.

She besides confessed successful tribunal that an unsigned humor state speechmaking related to Child D, who died from an aerial embolism, was successful her handwriting.

Then came the lawsuit of Child E, who died successful the aboriginal hours of August 4, 2015, aft losing a 3rd of its blood.

Child E’s parent recalled uncovering Child E successful acute distress astatine 9pm, bleeding astir the rima and ­making a ‘horrendous’ dependable portion Letby was ‘faffing around, not doing anything’.

Concerned, the parent phoned her husband. Phone records enactment this telephone astatine 9.11pm. Letby aboriginal filed notes claiming the babe was archetypal seen bleeding astir 10pm, which could excuse the information that exigency attraction wasn’t administered until it was excessively late.

The parent recalled feeling ‘fobbed off’ by Letby, who persuaded her to permission the ward by playing things down, saying ‘Trust me, I’m a nurse’.

Case for innocence

Letby argued that Child E’s parent was mistaken astir the timing, saying, ‘I disagree with that,’ erstwhile asked whether the incidental had really unfolded an hr earlier than her notes claimed.

She besides denied telling the parent to permission the ward, but said she mightiness person advised her to get immoderate rest.

Asked astir Child H, Letby said she could not accidental ‘from representation precisely what I was doing when’ (the assemblage recovered her guiltless of 1 complaint and could not scope a verdict connected others related to this infant).

The nonaccomplishment to motion Child D’s humor state speechmaking was meantime an ‘error that happens from clip to time’.

When cross-examined astir a big of different disputed incidents that look to person been near unrecorded, oregon wherever paperwork distanced her from being liable for a kid who died oregon suffered a collapse, she either denied wrongdoing oregon said she couldn’t retrieve details so: ‘I can’t reply that’.

Her ‘confession’

Case for guilt

Police who searched Letby’s location recovered a handwritten expanse of insubstantial headlined ‘NOT GOOD ENOUGH’ on with respective densely written Post-it notes.

Covered by mostly unpunctuated text, they contained specified phrases arsenic ‘I AM EVIL I DID THIS’ and ‘I killed them connected intent due to the fact that I americium not bully capable to attraction for them and I americium a horrible evil person’.

The sheets contained the names of triplets, 2 of whom had died successful Letby’s care, on with specified phrases arsenic ‘There are nary words. I americium an atrocious idiosyncratic – I wage each time for that’, ‘I can’t breathe. I can’t focus. Kill myself close now’, ‘Overwhelming fear/panic’, ‘I’ll ne'er person children oregon marry. I’ll ne'er cognize what it’s similar to person a family. NO HOPE’.

According to the prosecution, Letby’s notes amounted to a ­private confession, offering a model into the tortured psyche of a serial slayer who had realised that the nett was closing successful connected her.

Case for innocence

The notes, seemingly written erstwhile Letby had been suspended from work astatine the Countess of ­Chester amid fears astir the ­number of deaths connected her watch, besides contained specified phrases arsenic ‘Why me?’, ‘I haven’t done ­anything wrong’, ‘Police ­investigation slander favoritism victimisation’.

Letby’s barrister, Ben Myers KC, argued they should beryllium seen arsenic the ‘anguished outpouring of a young pistillate successful fearfulness and despair erstwhile she realises the enormity of what’s being said astir her’.

In court, Letby claimed that ­writing notes was her mode of ‘processing emotions’, saying: ‘I felt astatine the clip if I’d done thing incorrect and I didn’t cognize I’d done that I indispensable beryllium specified an atrocious evil person, if I’d made mistakes I’d not known.’

Asked wherefore she wrote ‘I did this’, she added: ‘I felt I indispensable beryllium liable successful immoderate way.’

According to The Guardian paper ‘sources adjacent to the case’ assertion the notes were written connected the proposal of her GP and the Countess of Chester Hospital’s Head of Occupational Health, Kathryn de Beger, who believed that penning down feelings would beryllium a bully mode to ‘cope with utmost stress’.

Yet Letby failed to notation this during hours of constabulary interrogations, oregon portion giving evidence, truthful it was ne'er tested successful court.