Nepal’s never-ending power flips, and why India needs a new strategy

As another political drama unfolds in Kathmandu, Nepal’s transition from a constitutional monarchy to a federal democratic republic looks unending as well as chaotic. It has been marked by frequent changes of govt, opportunistic switching of coalition partners, heavily politicised institutions, rampant corruption, and frequent crossing of red lines, especially vis-à-vis China.

In the current episode, within days of PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ forming a new coalition with former Communist ally K P Sharma Oli after parting ways with Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress, there was yet again a switching of sides between coalition partners and foes. Oli (now Nepal’s new PM) and Deuba reached an ‘understanding’ on sharing the prime ministership under a new rotational arrangement to ensure stability until the next elections due in 2027, which is theoretically possible since between them they command 167 out of 278 parliamentary seats as the two largest parties.

Prachanda’s Maoist Centre (MC) was a distant third with just 32 seats, and though he is known for his tactical political gymnastics, this time he was severely outnumbered. A day before the confidence vote, however, his depleted cabinet approved a railway project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). During the few days that his alliance with Oli lasted, their Leftist-dominated govt also took the astonishing decision to print on 100 rupee notes a map showing the Indian border territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal! India will be hoping that with the Nepali Congress as a lead member of the new coalition, such adventurism will be moderated. This hope is bolstered by other signals: for example, the public statement of Oli’s key advisor, Rajan Bhattarai, that Oli considered good relations with India as essential for Nepal’s development and that differences should be sorted out through talks; and the appointment of Deuba’s wife Arzu Rana as foreign minister. Her initial statement that boundary disputes with India should be resolved through facts and evidence, avoiding unnecessary conflicts.

oli twist: India needs to counter Chinese influence in a transformed Nepal

Another useful reminder: while Oli is often painted as anti-India, he has, in the past, come under criticism internally in Nepal for the opposite reason. However, suspicions of massive corruption, apparently involving most political leaders and senior bureaucrats loyal to them, are casting long shadows. Moreover, Oli is 72 years old, Deuba 78, and Prachanda 69. Waiting in the wings are restless younger politicians who bore the brunt of 10 years of traumatic Maoist insurgency, either as perpetrators or victims of brutality. The political churning is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Its chronic political instability is already a serious disincentive for investment, both foreign and domestic, at a time when the ailing economy needs it most. Then there is the real possibility of external players exploiting the situation. Both Prachanda and Oli have used China, or allowed themselves to be used by it, to India’s acute discomfort, at various times in recent years. China itself has been very open and active in urging the two main Left parties to be together, but even if this does not succeed, there is nothing to stop it from continuing with its unifocal mission of transforming Nepal into an anti-India, anti-West, and dependable satellite in the new uncertain world order. Given China’s clear strategic intent, India needs to devise an innovative and comprehensive counter-strategy, irrespective of the political complexion of the govt of the day.

It can, however, draw comfort from public opinion in Nepal that is now very alert to the long-term price of too close a Chinese embrace, risks of falling into a debt trap, and limitations in terms of Chinese capacities in comparison to India’s. Traditional irritants like the 1950 Treaty and the border issue need not over-influence future directions of cooperation.

Why not an expert group on achieving a transformative future for the people at the bottom of the pyramid on both sides of the border? ‘Accelerating all-round development’ as the energising theme of the moment instead of the old Roti-Beti (food and marriage bond) refrain might just resonate in the transformed Nepal of today. It is also important for India to engage intensively with Nepal’s Left, even as strong bonds with traditional friends continue. The Left has been in office in most govts since the Maoists were mainstreamed, for it does offer possibilities of alleviating traditional inequalities based on caste, gender or culture despite its disappointing performance so far. This is the only way consensus-based continuity in bilateral cooperation could be ensured despite instability. In the current highly unstable and unpredictable scenario, the only mantra that is likely to work is to learn from the past so that avoidable misunderstandings do not recur; manage the present as best as possible; and try to shape a cross-party consensus-based future for a steady growth trajectory in ties.

K V Rajan, India’s former Ambassador to Nepal, and Atul K Thakur, a policy professional, are authors of ‘Kathmandu Chronicle: Reclaiming India-Nepal Relations’. Views expressed are personal.

END OF ARTICLE