Winter storm timeline: When and how much snow NYC could get

NEW YORK (PIX11) -- A potent coastal storm is expected to make its way toward the tri-state region this weekend. Temperatures will be just cold enough for the potential for some snow in New York City.

It has been quite a long time since we have seen a storm that gave an appreciable accumulation. You need to go back to Feb. 13, 2022, when we saw a storm drop an inch or more of snow in Central Park.

While the forecast models agree on a storm to impact the tri-state region this weekend, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the track of the storm, and that will ultimately determine whether we get rain, snow, or everything in between.

At this point, the forecast models continue to fluctuate with the track, and that creates a big uncertainty for forecasts to determine when the changeover periods occur. For this reason, we cannot simply state when the rain or snow changes over this far out. It is conceivable that we may see a main rain event with very little snow.

For now, here is a potential timeline for the storm:

• Saturday morning: Clouds thickening
• Saturday afternoon: A few flurries or snow showers could be possible, otherwise it remains cloudy
• Saturday evening: The winds pick up. Rain or snow develops and continues into the night
• Saturday night: The brunt of the storm. Rain, snow, or sleet will continue. Gusts of 40 mph will be possible at times as well
• Sunday morning: The low will start to pull out and we will see the precipitation start to wind down. As cold air pulls in behind the storm, this may be the best chance for all sections to see a little snow, although accumulations will be light. The winds will also start to ease as well
• Sunday afternoon/evening: The storm should finally dissipate totally, although there will still be a breeze

This is very preliminary, but when all is said and done, as much as 1 inch to 3 inches of wet snow will be possible for New York City and points east and south. The amounts will ramp upward away from the coast to as much as 6 inches or more for northern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley north of Interstate 287.

Keep in mind that these amounts may go downward very easily if the storm tracks closer along the coast and makes it mainly a rain event. On the other hand, should the storm track further away, snow totals may increase by a couple of inches.