Analysis: 13 Reasons Why Jagan Reddy Lost In Andhra Pradesh

Outgoing Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy says he does not know why, despite bringing welfare to maximum households - the elderly, women, farmers, auto drivers - he and his party, the YSR Congress, had faced such a humiliating defeat in Andhra Pradesh.

The YSRCP had won 151 assembly and 23 Lok Sabha seats with nearly 50 per cent vote share in 2019. Falling to a 40 per cent vote share in 2024 has left the party with just 10 assembly and four Lok Sabha seats.

Here are 13 possible reasons why Mr Reddy and his party performed badly:

1. The arrest of Chandrababu Naidu, or CBN, in September 2023 shocked his admirers and supporters, especially among the educated population who considered Mr Naidu as an icon of progressive Telugu political leadership. The police action was suspected to be vendetta politics.
2. The arrest of Mr Naidu may not have directly translated into a sympathy wave, but he was a tall leader who had many admirers. For a senior, much-respected politician to be put behind bars, reeked of a vengeful government out to settle scores.
3. The turning point in changing the fortunes of Mr Naidu and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) came with Pawan Kalyan playing the hero for a party in distress and announcing that he and the Jana Sena would fight the election along with Mr Naidu and the TDP.
4. Post the arrest, the CBN camp had appeared in low spirits and were not looking capable of spinning a political comeback as a winner. But the star's entry and standing with Nara Lokesh outside Rajahmundry Central Prison served as a powerful image that boosted the confidence of the party workers, and even the people, that Mr Naidu could be back.
5. Lessons from Telangana and K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) did not help Mr Reddy and the YSRCP. If the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) had lost the 2023 assembly election because KCR did not change candidates, Mr Reddy changed some 102 candidates, but that did not pay off. The poll arithmetic of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) worked perfectly, with the vote share apparently happening smoothly between the alliance partners. Mr Naidu and Mr Kalyan ensured they met regularly, courteously and put up a chemistry in their appearances together that gave the right signals to the party workers. No dirty linen was ever washed in public.
6. The volunteer system to reach governance and administration to the doorstep of the most deprived sections worked well. But the official machinery got neglected. That created resentment and the political parties were not able to build their popularity on a patronage basis.
7. The narrative that the Reddy government did not focus on anything beyond welfare measures had a resonance with the people of Andhra Pradesh. Mr Reddy's term coincided with the Covid pandemic, which brought with it economic distress. Plus the bifurcated state had few resources for development. The job market has been lacklustre, and it was no different in Andhra Pradesh. But here, Mr Reddy was successfully projected as the villain for failing to bring industry and investment to Andhra Pradesh.
8. Mr Naidu, Mr Kalyan and Mr Lokesh repeatedly called Mr Reddy a "psycho". They asked, "Who killed babai", referring to the murder of Mr Reddy's uncle YS Vivekananda Reddy, creating doubt and suspicion in the minds of people.
9. YS Sharmila has not won Kadapa. Yet her campaign, targetting her brother, as someone who is supporting the murder accused of their uncle, did not help Mr Reddy's image among the people. After all, Ms Sharmila had campaigned for Mr Reddy, even undertook a padyatra for him. Yet, the fact that she was not just estranged but had gone against him publicly, led to gossip about palace intrigue and of greed, avarice, and little value for relationships.
10. Just like in Telangana, there was also talk of Mr Reddy getting surrounded by a coterie that did not allow genuine feedback to reach him. Even though he came across as a people's man in his political yatras, Mr Reddy is not known to be gregarious and liked his personal space and time with his family and that did lead to resentment about no access. Like KCR, he too got labelled authoritarian and inaccessible.
11. The sheer power of numbers: As against Mr Reddy who came across as a singular face, a lone soldier and campaigner for his party, the NDA had many, many faces. From Mr Naidu to Mr Kalyan, both campaigned extensively. Plus the momentum set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and other BJP leaders adding voice and volume to the NDA campaign, gave it a momentum that YSRCP was not able to match. 
12. Already, Mr Lokesh had undertaken a 3,132-km yatra for 226 days called Yuvagalam, which helped the younger TDP leader to connect directly with the people, as Mr Reddy had done earlier. Mr Lokesh walked from Kuppam in southern Andhra Pradesh to Visakhapatnam, taking a break only when his father went to jail. He listened to people's grievances, promising to address them when the TDP came to power.
13. Mr Naidu took no chances and presented a manifesto that included Mr Reddy's welfare promises and more. The man once known for economic reforms now was proposing a manifesto that was clearly financially unviable for a state without resources. The campaign around the Land Titling Act was probably the last nail on the coffin. It created doubts and apprehension around not just selling and buying land but also about losing land, not being able to either inherit land or pass it on to children. The YSRCP was not able to do enough damage control in time and that possibly nailed it.