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The leaders of Ukraine and Russia began jockeying for influence with President-elect Donald Trump in the immediate aftermath of the US election, seeking through public statements Thursday to gain an advantage in his promised push for a resolution to their years-long conflict.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday called for “a fair ending to the war” and warned that a swift end to hostilities could force his country into a defeat.
“A quick ending would be a loss,” Zelenskiy told reporters at a summit in Budapest hosted by Viktor Orban, the European Union's biggest critic of aid for Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on his victory and said the Republican, who on the campaign trail pledged to broker a peace deal between the two countries and suggested he wanted to scale back or end US aid to Kyiv, had ideas worth exploring.
“It seems to me, it deserves attention what was said about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis,” Putin said late Thursday at the annual meeting of the Valdai Club in the Black Sea city of Sochi, in his first comments on Trump's reelection. “I have always said that we will work with any head of state who has the trust of the American people.”
The dueling remarks underscored the extent to which Trump's election has jumbled the international politics around the war, which until now has seen the US and European leaders provide billions of dollars in arms and assistance to Ukraine as it has sought to repel Russia's invasion.
Trump, who had predicted he could end the conflict the day after his election, gave little indication of how he planned to approach that challenge in an interview with NBC News on Thursday.
Trump said that he had already spoken with Zelenskiy but that Putin wasn't among the “probably” 70 phone conversations he has held with world leaders since winning the election. But, Trump said, he still planned a conversation with the Russian leader.
“I think we'll speak,” Trump said.
‘Open Question'
But Orban, one of Trump's closest allies on the world stage, said that US and European aid to Ukraine to the tune of €50 billion ($54 billion) that's already been agreed is now an “open question.”
US and European nations were tiring of putting up money and the package is insufficient to continue to finance Ukraine, Orban said after the summit.
Zelenskiy had hoped to shore up that support from his European allies in the aftermath of Trump's election victory. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was late for the meeting after his coalition government collapsed overnight, in part due to a dispute over aid for Ukraine.
Western officials have been saying privately for months that Zelenskiy's goal of pushing Russia out of Ukrainian territory looks beyond reach in the foreseeable future and signaled their hopes for an end to the fighting.
“Some of you present here were strongly advocating for Ukraine to make concessions,” Zelenskiy told leaders earlier during the summit meeting. “It's unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all of Europe.”
As Zelenskiy was speaking with European leaders, Russian forces hit the city of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine with five glide bombs on Thursday, killing four and injuring at least 18 civilians, the regional government said on Telegram. The country was also targeted with a barrage of more than 100 explosive-laden drones overnight.
Putin gave no indication that Russia is ready to make concessions to secure an end to the war he started in February 2022. He's repeatedly said he's willing to hold talks, while insisting that any negotiations take account of the realities on the ground since his forces invaded Ukraine and occupied swathes of the country's south and east.
Russian officials have veered between ill-disguised joy and apprehension at the prospect of a new four-year term for Trump. Despite his comments on the Ukraine conflict and attempts to curry favor with Putin during his first administration, Trump also imposed punishing new sanctions, including on aluminum producer Rusal and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, and expelled scores of Russian diplomats.
“Many people close to power in Moscow who understand US policy are afraid of Trump's victory,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the consultancy R.Politik and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “You can drink a bottle of wine, dance with happiness and then get an awful hangover.”
Ukraine's staunchest supporters in eastern Europe have been arguing that giving Zelenskiy the weapons and the money to defeat Putin isn't just the right thing to do, it's also the most effective solution. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he'll pose a bigger threat to Europe and that will require much greater investment in defense.
“The European value-based and rule-based system will also somewhat be decided in the conflict,” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the eve of the talks. “That probably also will be a mark that will be left on Europe.”
Yet on the sidelines of the summit discussions, some European leaders were holding their first phone conversations with Trump since the election.
Zelenskiy said that he had not discussed the possibility of a quick end to the fighting when he spoke to Trump Wednesday in the aftermath of the election result. “This is ahead,” he told reporters. “It is clear for me that he wants to end it.”
Zelenskiy said previously that he wanted US help to force Russia to negotiate on Ukrainian terms and avoid a frozen conflict that would give Moscow time to rearm and attack again.
European Allies
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was engaged in a series of bilateral meetings with other leaders, according to another senior official. Starmer is discussing with his European allies how to deepen defense coordination and ramp up help for Ukraine, especially if Trump dials back support after he takes office in January, the official said.
The UK is considering joint procurement with European nations and participating in military exercises, the official added.
US President Joe Biden has so far declined to provide what Kyiv says it needs to achieve a just peace. That plan includes an invitation to join NATO and permission to use western-made weapons to strike military targets deep inside Russia.
US thinking is unlikely to change in the months Biden has left in office, according to western diplomats. Most allies don't want to risk getting dragged into war with Russia while a symbolic invitation would have limited bargaining power, they added, asking not to be identified.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Thursday that Biden's focus was pushing forward with the foreign policy he had made, and making sure Ukraine had what it needed for its defense.
The diplomats also said that even if Kyiv was given permission for long-range strikes inside Russia, it doesn't have many missiles and there aren't enough targets within its reach to substantively change the balance on the ground.
Kyiv on the other hand believes that move would curb Russia's ability to continue hammering Ukraine's infrastructure and cities.
Critics have argued that Biden's Ukraine strategy points to continued stalemate as it's premised on cautious incrementalism and fear of escalation. Any peace talks in the near future would happen with Russia occupying parts of its neighbor and Putin unwilling to let that land go.
In the longer term, Ukraine's best bet to guarantee its security is to develop its own defense industry and capabilities with allied help, and mobilize a stronger and younger army, some of the diplomats said.
Speaking in Budapest, Zelenskiy also took an indirect dig at the host of the meeting, Orban, who has cultivated ties with Putin and visited him in Moscow in July.
“Hugs with Putin won't help,” Zelenskiy said. “Some of you have been hugging him for 20 years, and things are only getting worse.”
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