What Donald Trump's Second Term Could Mean For Politics In Middle East

The United States has a new President-Elect, and it's Donald Trump, who brings, above all, unpredictability to the White House. It's been just over twenty-four hours since his election, and the world, especially the Middle-East, is attempting to make sense of what the new leader will bring to the table. 

On Tuesday night, when Trump emerged triumphant, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has had a complex relationship with Trump, was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the US President-elect, calling his win "history's greatest comeback." While outgoing President Joe Biden threw his weight behind Netanyahu's war on Gaza, it remains to be seen how Trump approaches it. During his campaign trail, the President-elect never specified his plans for the Middle East.

But Gaza is not the only place Israel is militarily involved in. It's locked in another intense battle with Iran, while also targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, making it perhaps the biggest issue on Trump's agenda, come January 20th.

Trump's first term had some notable decisions in the Middle East. This included selecting Saudi Arabia for his inaugural foreign trip, strengthening Israel's regional ties with the "Abraham Accords", and applying heavy pressure on Iran.

Palestine and Gaza

With the Biden administration failing to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and Israel now embroiled in fresh conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Trump has to detail a clear path for where the US stands in all this.

One Israeli official hinted that Netanyahu might aim to wrap up the offensive in Gaza early in Trump's second term, aiming to present the Republican leader with a quick diplomatic win. "Nobody in Israel wanted Harris. Nobody trusted her over here," the official told CNN. 

"Netanyahu will face a much tougher president than he is used to in the sense that I don't think that Trump would tolerate the wars in the manner that they are happening," said Mustafa Barghouti, leader of the Palestinian National Initiative. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, echoed this, suggesting Trump would want a quick resolution, telling Netanyahu to "wrap it up; I don't need this."

Some fear he may even endorse Israel's potential annexation of parts of the West Bank, a move that may all but end the two-state solution.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman extended congratulations, with the United Arab Emirates highlighting the "enduring partnership based on shared ambitions for progress." Meanwhile, Iran downplayed the election, with government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani saying, "There is no significant difference" in US policies, regardless of leadership.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which established close ties with Trump during his first term, are expected to continue aligning with the US, though with greater caution. Gulf states have increasingly diversified their diplomatic and economic alliances, particularly with China, joining BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

Iran

Trump's prior "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran strained Tehran economically and politically. With his second term, experts predict a resurgence of this hardline approach. "The Islamic Republic appears as fragile as the threats against it are formidable," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group, noting that Iran's leadership may struggle to balance mounting challenges under Trump's watch.

Should Netanyahu feel emboldened by Trump's return, there are concerns of possible escalation against Iran's nuclear facilities. It could heighten tensions, as both countries maintain competing regional influence and military capabilities.

"With Iran, there is a chance that Trump reverts to a maximum pressure stance," said Hasan Alhasan of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noting that Gulf nations may experience increased US pressure to conform to this strategy. Balancing their deepening partnerships with China, especially in technology and infrastructure, might also become a challenge for these oil-rich states as they manage relations with Washington and Beijing under Trump's leadership.