10 months ago
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Sunil Kanugolu - the strategist credited with orchestrating the Congress' wins in Karnataka and Telangana - will not be part of its campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Earlier part of the Congress' 'Task Force 2024', he will now focus on prepping the party's Haryana and Maharashtra campaigns, sources close to him told NDTV Friday.
Mr Kanugolu's redeployment has been attributed to the fact he already has teams in place in those two states - both of which will vote in the next seven months - and to a Congress party keen to build on last year's victories in the Karnataka and Telangana Assembly elections, recording big wins over the ruling BJP and BRS, respectively.
However, news that the Congress' key poll tactician will not be on hand to guide the party in the April/May national election has raised eyebrows. A senior leader, holding the rank of General Secretary, acknowledged his absence on the Lok Sabha campaign is a "slight setback", but told NDTV the Congress believes there is greater long-term benefit if he can use his 'Midas touch', to win key states from the BJP.
Mr Kanugolu, sources added, will also continue to work with the Congress' governments in Karnataka, where he his now Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's primary advisor, with a cabinet rank, and Telangana, where he ousted ex-Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao and the BRS that has ruled since 2014.
READ | Congress' Poll Planner Now Chief Advisor To Karnataka Chief Minister
The importance of Mr Kanugolu to the Congress' election machinery is perhaps best illustrated by the party's dismal performances in last year's Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan elections.
READ | Sunil Kanugolu, Data-Driven Strategist Behind Congress' Karnataka Win
Mr Kanugolu held initial talks with leaders in those states, but neither Kamal Nath nor Ashok Gehlot, the party's oldest and de facto bosses in each, agreed to his demands.
READ | Congress' Telangana Strategist Snubbed In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh
The Congress lost badly in each state. Sources later told NDTV the wins in Karnataka and Telangana were the result of Mr Kanugolu being given a free hand in each.
The math behind the Congress' Lok Sabha election campaign is significantly more complicated, particularly with the party juggling multiple allies, and seat-sharing demands, as part of the INDIA opposition bloc.
READ | INDIA Bloc Seat Sharing Talks In Progress For Maharashtra, UP Next
In that context, Mr Kanugolu, hailed as a "man of ideas, with a handle on the big picture", would certainly be a valuable asset, particularly since he has worked with the party's direct rival; he was part of the BJP's 2014 Lok Sabha campaign.
The Congress, though, is likely thinking (very) long-term. Wins in Karnataka and Telangana (and Himachal Pradesh, another state where Mr Kanugolu aided the party) must be balanced against major losses, such as those in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh this year, and Punjab in 2022.
The Congress was the ruling party in three of these four states before disjointed, and faction-ridden, campaigns gave the BJP and the AAP (which picked up Punjab) wins they should not have had. The party now has governments (of its own) in just three states compared to the BJP's 12. It is likely it is banking on Mr Kanugolu, and his field surveys, to win over and strengthen its position in key states as it looks to build a strong base.
Haryana, where the BJP is not in a particularly strong position despite holding the chief minister's post, and Maharashtra, a state in turmoil since the acrimonious split in the Shiv Sena in June last year, which dumped the Congress out of power (it was part of the tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi government), seem good places to start.
Andhra Pradesh, which is also scheduled to vote this year, will likely be passed over by Mr Kanugolu given the Congress doesn't really have a presence there, despite the recent entrance of YS Sharmila.
Among the other states heading for Assembly elections in 2024 are Odisha, where Chief Minister Naveen Patna's BJD has a stranglehold, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh. Jharkhand will also vote but the Congress is already part of the government there, having allied with Chief Minister Hemant Soren's JMM.
The big test will be Jammu and Kashmir, which, if the Supreme Court's order is followed, will hold a first election since the controversial scrapping of special status under Article 370. The last Assembly poll in J&K was in 2014.
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