Subtle shifts in real estate agent dynamics in March: Relitix

The latest findings from Relitix’s Agent Movement Index (AMI) for March 2024 reveal a nuanced landscape in the real estate sector, with shifts in agent activities suggesting stabilizing and evolving market conditions.

Key highlights from this month’s AMI show that the decline in the number of active agents, those with a closing in the past year, has plateaued. This stabilization is possibly linked to a resurgence in property sales, hinting at a more buoyant housing market ahead. Moreover, the AMI reveals an upward trend in agents switching between brokerages, though the expected peak for March fell short of previous highs, the overall trend continues generally upward.

The broader impact of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement is still unfolding. Agents are yet to fully adjust to these changes, with upcoming months likely to clarify whether agents will prefer stability or seek new opportunities amidst shifting industry dynamics.

This month’s data suggests that while the agent market has faced considerable flux, there’s now signs of emerging stability. We’re closely monitoring how these changes affect agent decisions, especially in light of recent industry-wide shifts.

The AMI, a robust measure of agent movement dynamics, is calculated from extensive national data drawn from major MLS systems and is released monthly. It includes both raw monthly figures and seasonally adjusted data to provide a clear view of underlying trends.

March’s report saw the AMI reaching a score of 114.6, with the seasonally adjusted figure slightly lower at 122.3, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the market. These metrics serve as critical indicators for brokerage firms and real estate professionals looking to navigate the ever-evolving real estate landscape.

Trends in the relative movement of experienced real estate agents between brokerages are an important strategic consideration for brokerage and franchise leaders. The relative amount of movement fluctuates over time on a seasonal and long-term basis.

Methodology:  The Agent Movement Index is published monthly and features monthly and seasonally adjusted, and 12-trailing-month values. The index is calculated using national-level data from a large sample of the nation’s most prominent MLS systems. The agent movement reflects the relative mobility of experienced agents between brokerages. The score is computed by estimating the number of agents who changed brokerages in a given month. To be counted the agent must be a member of one of the analyzed MLS’s and change to a substantially different office name at a different address. M&A-driven activity and reflags are excluded as are new agents and agents who leave real estate. Efforts are made to exclude out of market agents and those which are MLS system artifacts. The number of agents changing offices is divided by the number of agents active in the past 12 months in the analyzed market areas. This percentage is normalized to reflect a value of 100 at the level of movement in January 2016 (0.7313%). The seasonally adjusted value divides the monthly result by the average of the same month in prior years.

Analyzed MLS’s represent over 800,000 members and include: ACTRIS, ARMLS, BAREIS, BeachesMLS, BrightMLS, Canopy, Charleston Trident, CRMLS, GAMLS, GlobalMLS, HAR, LVAR, Metrolist, MLSListings, MLSNow, MLSPIN, MRED, Northstar, NTREIS, NWMLS, OneKey, RealComp, REColorado, SEF, Stellar, Triad, Triangle, and UtahRealEstate.

Rob Keefe is founder of Relitix Data Science.