Rural vote falls for NDA, surges substantially for INDIA bloc

The NDA alliance managed to scrape through in the recently-concluded polls by securing 293 seats, just 21 seats above the required majority mark of 272. Of this, the BJP won 240 seats, 63 less than their score in the previous Lok Sabha election. One of the major reasons for the dent in the alliance’s performance is the fall in rural votes.

According to a post-poll survey by Axis My India (weighted to actual results), the BJP captured 35 per cent of the rural vote share, the largest by any party. However, it’s a slight decrease of 1 per cent compared to the 2019 election. The party’s allies maintained their rural vote share at 8 per cent, showing no change from the previous election. This means that out of every 100 voters, 43 voted for the NDA. While in itself, NDA’s performance is notable, it’s their rival, the INDIA bloc’s impressive show that tilted the scales against them.

On the opposition front, the grand old party, Congress, saw a marginal rise in rural support. The INC’s rural vote share increased to 21 per cent, a hike of 2 per cent over the 2019 poll results. The major fillip for the party came from its allies as they witnessed a substantial boost in rural support, with their rural vote share rising by 13 per cent and reaching 21 per cent in the 2024 election compared to 2019. So, while only 29 voters out of 100 had chosen Congress and its allies in the last election, this time around, 42 of 100 voters in rural areas cast their ballot in favour of the INDIA bloc.

The biggest jolt in rural areas was felt by regional parties, whose combined vote share fell by 14 percentage points to only 15 per cent in the 2024 elections. These include parties like the BSP in Uttar Pradesh, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, AIADMK and DMDK in Tamil Nadu, SAD in Punjab, and the BJD in Odisha. The sharp decrease suggests that rural voters tilted towards major alliances, seeking more stability and clearer policies.