Opinion: A Shot In The Arm: Trump's Rise Suddenly Seems Inevitable

Even before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, American politics was churning. But after the dramatic developments of last week, it's spinning in a way few could have foreseen. Even as President Joe Biden is getting weaker by the day, Trump seems to be gaining an unstoppable momentum. As per internal polling of the Democrats, Biden is losing ground to Trump in 14 key states, including the five that Biden won in 2020 -  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His numbers are shaky in Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire after his disastrous debate performance.

The Democratic Party remains badly divided with growing fears among its rank and file that, in light of the debate, Biden is in no position to defeat Trump and that he will leave other Democrats on the ballot in November vulnerable too. Voices are growing within the Party asking Biden to step aside, with senior party officials like Rep. Adam Schiff of California making an open case that "a second Trump presidency will undermine the very foundation of our democracy, and I have serious concerns about whether the President can defeat Donald Trump in November". Biden is fighting back but is struggling in convincing his own party about his suitability for the top job.

The GOP Convention

His opponent, meanwhile, is basking in the glory of a convention where his past critics are now coming together to anoint him as the party's nominee more formally. All those like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio, who till a few months back were targeting Trump at the Republican primaries, have now ended up endorsing him unequivocally. Trump with a bandage over his ears and his supporters shouting "Fight, fight, fight!" at the Republican National Convention is a powerful imagery for a nation that a few days back was debating the suitability of a candidate who incited the January 6 insurrection at Capitol Hill.  

The confusion in the Republican party was apparent when after J.D. Vance, a former Never Trumper who had, in 2016, wondered whether Trump might be "America's Hitler", was confirmed as the Republican Party's vice presidential nominee. He faced racist attacks from far-right commentators because of his wife's Indian heritage. The upholders of the 'Make America Great Again' movement are finding it difficult to reconcile Vance's multicultural family with their core agenda of anti-immigration.

Fundamental Challenges

Political polarisation in the US has led to some fundamental challenges being faced by both the Republicans and the Democrats. The demonisation of the other side has led to a situation where even after an assassination attempt, vitriol continues to flow and there is no attempt at reconciliation.

Though the theme of the Republican convention this week is about unity, there is no place in today's Republican rank and file for those who have a different vision for the US than Trump's. Any challenge to Trump is about challenging the party as the former president has ensured that the Republican Party today is more reflective of his views than a broad tent organisation.

After the assassination attempt on Trump, Vance wrote: "Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination." Trump's own role in vitiating the political climate in the US has been conveniently forgotten by his supporters.

Though President Biden called on the Americans last week to rein in the political debate, arguing that "[It] must never be a battlefield and, God forbid, a killing field", and warning that "no matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend into violence", it's not readily evident who is listening. Trump's ability to tap into the sense of grievance and persecution felt by middle America has thwarted any attempt by the Biden administration and the Democrats more generally to craft a political narrative that can shift the momentum in their favour. And now after the attack on Trump, it has become even more difficult as the image of a defiant former President with blood streaked across his face stands in stark contrast to a fumbling feeble Biden unable to articulate a coherent thought.
 
November is still far away. Even a day is a long time in politics. The Democratic Party can still regroup and present a serious challenge to Trump. But there is no denying the fact that the last two weeks have upended the US Presidential elections in fundamental ways and will leave a strong mark on American politics whichever way the political winds blow in the coming days.

(Harsh V Pant is Vice-President for Studies and Foreign Policy at ORF.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author