The recently-concluded elections surprised many as the NDA alliance secured only 293 seats, falling short of the anticipated 330+. A significant factor behind this shift was the farmers' transition towards the INDIA Bloc.
New Delhi,UPDATED: Jun 9, 2024 12:26 IST
The recently-concluded elections defied most exit polls as the NDA alliance won only 293 seats against the projected 330+. One of the reasons for this jolt has been the switch in farmers’ support from the ruling alliance to its Opposition, the INDIA Bloc.
The Axis My India post-poll survey offers an in-depth analysis of voter inclinations during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This survey delves into the voting behavior among farmers and farm laborers, examining the fluctuations in support for major political parties and their allies over the course of two significant electoral cycles.
According to the survey, in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, farmers favoured the Bharatiya Janata Party. Back then, 39 out of every 100 voters chose the party while only 19 out of 100 voters opted for the Indian National Congress. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP's support decreased slightly to 37 out of 100 voters among farmers, while the Congress experienced a marginal increase to 21 votes. The Congress’ major support base came from its allies which saw a surge in farmers’ vote share increase from only 10 per cent in 2019 to an impressive 21 per cent in this election.
Overall, while the NDA alliance had a lead of 45 per cent in farmers vote share in 2024, it was a drop of 3 per cent compared to 2019. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc witnessed a massive gain of 13 per cent over the previous election to 42 per cent in 2024.
INDIA BLOC GAINS AT THE EXPENSE OF REGIONAL PARTIES
Similarly, among farm labourers, the BJP secured 32 per cent vote share in 2019 and its allies got 7 per cent. The Congress got 19 per cent and its allies secured 7 per cent.Forward to the recent 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP maintained its lead with 31 per cent vote share among farm laborers and its allies too saw a jump to 11 per cent. However, the Congress and its allies saw a more impressive rise to 24 per cent and 17 per cent vote share.
The biggest loss in both categories was to other parties, which include major regional parties in the states. These are BSP in Uttar Pradesh, YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh, AIADMK and DMDK in Tamil Nadu, SAD in Punjab, and the BJD in Odisha. In 2019, while 23 out of 100 farmers had voted for such parties, the number fell to just 13 in 2024. A bigger decline was seen in the vote share of farm labourers. The vote share of this category for regional parties had been 35 per cent in the previous election but fell by a drastic 18 percentage point to only 17 per cent. This means the farm labourers support base for regional parties was just half now compared to 2019.
Published By:
Akhilesh Nagari
Published On:
Jun 9, 2024
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