With 10 games left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain 1,024 possible combinations of match results. KKR are now sure to make the playoffs while MI and PBKS are totally ruled out.
Use TOI's interactive utility to see possible playoff scenarios
We look at the chances of each team:
KKR - The team currently topping the table, their chances of finishing sole toppers have moved up to 50% with Saturday's win.
Their chances of finishing joint toppers on points also moved up to 75%. At worst they can finish tied for second spot with one other team (SRH).
RR - KKR beating MI on Saturday meant that RR's chances of being sole toppers fell from 36% to 25% and their chances of at least tying for the top spot from 62.5% to 50%. They are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied third with any two of CSK, DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there's an under 0.8% chance of such a scenario.
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SRH - Currently in third place, SRH have nearly 97% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. The best they can hope for is a joint first spot with one or two other teams and the chances of that are only at 1.6%.
CSK - In fourth place, CSK have a little over 56% chance of finishing within the top four slots either singly or jointly. The best they can do is tied for second spot with one to three other teams. And the chances of that are just under 5%.
DC - Fifth placed DC have no chance of finishing the toppers or even joint toppers. Their chances of ending up among the top four singly or jointly are about 58%. Their best case scenario is joint second on points and there's a 2.3% chance of that happening.
LSG - Sixth placed LSG's chances of making the top four singly or jointly are also about 58%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for the second spot with one to three other teams. The chances of that happening are just 2.3%.
RCB - RCB remain in seventh place and their chances of finishing among the top four on points, singly or jointly, are a tad over 20%. Their best case scenario is joint third with two to five other teams and the chances of that are a little under 5%.
GT - Currently eighth, GT still have a nearly 16% chance of making it to the top four on points, singly or jointly. Their best case scenario is joint third with three to five other teams and there's a less than 5% chance of that happening.
PBKS - Their run for the playoffs have ended. Even the chances of a joint fifth spot are a lowly 0.6%.
MI - MI too are out of the playoffs. They can at best end up joint 7th and even that is just a 2.3% chance.
In short: KKR are through to the playoffs. Bet on RR too making it and SRH most likely to join them, leaving CSK, LSG and DC battling it out for the fourth spot. For RCB or GT to get into the mix would need many results to go their way.
How we calculate the chances:
With 10 games remaining, there remain 1,024 possible combinations of match outcomes. We look at each one of those and what it would mean in terms of the final rankings of the teams. Then we work out the percentage of outcomes that would give team "A" a chance of finishing in the top four, or the first spot and so on. The underlying assumption is that any given match is a 50-50 game, not unreasonable given how the IPL has unfolded this year and in other years. For instance, of the 1,024 combinations, RR finish at the top slot singly or jointly in 512 combinations, which means a 50% chance of being sole or joint toppers.
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