MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 65 main event between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy.
Josh Emmett UFC on ESPN 65 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 19-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC
- Height: 5'6" Age: 40 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 70"
- Last fight: Knockout win over Bryce Mitchell (Dec. 16, 2023)
- Camp: Team Alpha Male (Calif.)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ NAIA collegiate wrestler (Menlo College)
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ 12 knockdowns in last 11 appearances
+ Heavy crosses and hooks
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Good takedown ability
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Scrambles well/positionally aware
+/- Coming off of a 15-month layoff
Lerone Murphy UFC on ESPN 65 preview
Staple info:
- 15-0-1 MMA, 7-0-1 UFC
- Height: 5'9" Age: 33 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 73.5"
- Last fight: Decision win over Dan Ige (Oct. 26, 2024)
- Camp: Manchester Top Team (England)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Solid feints and footwork
^ Strikes well from both stances
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well off over-unders
+ Serviceable takedown ability
^ Favors attempts along the fence
+ Solid scrambling and transitional grappling
+ Good ground-and-pound
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy point of interest: The cost of counters
The main event in Las Vegas features a fight between two top featherweights who are familiar with the cost of counters.
An athletic and explosive mover, Emmett displays similar stylistic nods to his Team Alpha Male stablemates to go along with an eye for technical detail.
Often circling along the outside, Emmett will offer an array of looks in an effort to create alternate angles of approach. Whether he is feinting heavily and shuffle-stepping his way into range with a right hand, or shifting to southpaw to enter off of kicks, Emmett has power in almost everything he throws.
The 14-year pro also carries some craft to his game, demonstrating slick head movement and an awareness of angles that speaks louder than one would expect from his resume.
A deceptive counterpuncher, Emmett does his best work when walking his opponents into his favored heavy right hand. But given the flexibility of his current foe, Emmett will need to respect what's coming back at him.
Enter Murphy.
Despite the UFC matchmakers’ best efforts to bury lighter-weight talents on preliminary cards, Murphy appears to have made himself undeniable with the skills shown in his accrual of wins.
A well-coached fighter who looks to be a natural when it comes to striking, Murphy comports himself comfortably from both stances on the feet. Whether Murphy’s launching left-sided power strikes from southpaw or is trying to set up his patent calk kick from orthodox, the English fighter is seamless when switching sides.
Not only can Murphy variate the looks and levels of his jab, but the 33-year-old also displays solid instincts when it comes to his leg kick defense and counters that should come in handy this Saturday. That said, Murphy has shown that he is not beyond being caught while kicking either, making counters a potent two-way street.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if this party ends up on the floor at some point.
No stranger to closed-quarter combat, Murphy has shown a semi-surprising willingness to tie up with opposition throughout a fight.
Although Murphy does have a decent reactionary double-leg that he’ll dust off on occasion, the 9-year pro primarily looks to get things done from the clinch. Whether Murphy is muscling his man over from the bodylock or looking to change levels along the fence, the Englishman seems strong from this space and works well off over-unders.
Still, I’ll be curious to see how Murphy’s entries stack up against the American’s defense.
A former NAIA collegiate wrestler, Emmett traditionally has had the edge when it comes to takedown traffic and positional play. Whether Emmett is in the open or against the fence, he has shown a serviceable array of options he can exercise (though most of his completions come against the cage).
Emmett also knows his way inside a scramble, displaying passing and striking competency from topside in past performances.
From the bottom, Emmett is not afraid to attack what’s there – chaining chokes, leg locks and other submissions that he parlays into opportunities to scramble and stand. In fact, both men do fairly well with getting back to their feet, making me think that ground exchanges may be short and sweet while both are fresh.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the English fighter, listing Murphy -340 and Emmett +250 via FanDuel.
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy prediction, pick
Between Murphy's undefeated record and Emmett's age, the betting spread above comes as no surprise given the propensities of MMA gamblers.
Aside from age traditionally being an extra factor in lighter weight classes, Emmett is also coming off of a 15-month layoff due to injury. Emmett reports to be in better condition than prior fights (intimating that he's been struggling with health issues for some time), but it's hard to know exactly what you're going to get with any fighter until the bell rings.
However, when you set the intangibles aside, this fight – from a stylistic perspective – becomes much more competitive than meets the eye.
There's no doubt that Murphy is an incredibly well-trained and well-rounded fighter, but his lack of killer instinct at the upper echelon has allowed him to make some fights closer than they needed to be. Aside from skating by on some ultra-tight decisions, Murphy has also been arguably saved by the bell a couple of times after being stunned in fights.
Should Murphy fight close with a puncher like Emmett, then he could be inviting either a vicious shot that he can't recover from or a contentious scorecard that's swayed by the bigger swings of the American.
Don't get me wrong: Murphy is the deserved favorite in this spot and has a higher skills ceiling than Emmett. But if Murphy can't seriously hurt Emmett or establish his presence with authority early, then I believe that his dance partner will be too difficult to consistently take down to the floor and too dangerous to tango with on the feet.
I don't imagine this will be a popular pick, but I'll take a flier on Emmett to find a knockout by Round 2.
Prediction: Emmett inside the distance
Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy start time, where to watch
As the main event, Emmett and Murphy are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:35 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie's event hub for UFC on ESPN 65.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Josh Emmett vs. Lerone Murphy prediction, pick: Will an undefeated record come to an end?
English (US) ·