Amidst prevailing global uncertainties, Harvard University professor Niall Ferguson shared an optimistic view of India's
economic prospects
at the World Economic Forum in Davos. His message to India was clear: "Just chill! It's all going your way."
Ferguson highlighted the
demographic advantage
India holds, with a fifth of the world's population projected to be Indian by 2050.
He said this while speaking to India Today on the sidelines of the Davos summit. He anticipates that by then, China's economy will only be 40 percent larger than India's, a significant closing of the gap, illustrating the 'tortoise' catching up with the 'hare.'
He suggested that although India's growth has been slower compared to China's rapid development, it is steadily catching up. This analogy underscores a broader narrative of resilience and sustained growth.
Delving into the specifics, Ferguson pointed out that the reforms in China began in 1978, leading to a situation where, in 2021, the Chinese economy was four and a half times the size of India's. However, he projected a significant shift by 2050, with India expected to close this gap considerably. According to his predictions, while China's economy will still be larger, the difference would be considerably narrowed, with India's demographic advantages playing a crucial role.
Ferguson also raised concerns about the sustainability of the Chinese economic model, questioning its capacity to maintain growth alongside political stability. He referred to the breakdown of 'Chinamerica,' citing the Google-China dispute as a representative example of the challenges China faces.
English (US) ·