Exit Poll Predictions To Be Out Soon, A Look At How They Work

The voting for the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 ends on June 1 with the final and seventh phase polling. The general elections began on April 19, followed by five other phases on April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, and May 26. 

What are exit polls?

Exit polls try to predict election outcomes by interviewing voters right after they have cast their votes.

In India, such polls are prohibited during the voting process by the Election Commission. However, exit polls can be made public 30 minutes after the entire voting process ends.

This is to make sure that the polls don't influence people while they are still voting, but also still allows for immediate analysis and discussion once the process is complete.

Warning: Exit polls do not always get it right. They have been way off the mark in the past. 

How are exit polls calculated? 

Exit polls are calculated using a combination of sampling methods and statistical analysis by various agencies. These include:

Sampling: Pollsters pick a bunch of voters from different areas to represent the whole population. They want to make sure they talk to people across demography.

Questioning: Selected voters are asked who they voted for and other basic questions, like their age and where they live.

Data Collection: The answers are collected and recorded. 

Weightage: The data is adjusted to make sure it is a fair representation. For example, if the pollsters didn't talk to enough young people, they might give their answers more weight to balance things out.

Analysis: Experts look at all this data and analyse it to make predictions about the election results based on what the voters said.

Margin of Error: The exit polls also figure out how certain or uncertain their predictions are. 

Finally, these predictions are shared with the public. 

When are the 2024 exit polls due?

For the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, exit polls will be shown live on June 1 after the final voting phase ends. Voting for this phase will end at 6 pm on Saturday and the exit polls will start airing from 6:30 pm onwards. Tune in to NDTV for live updates on exit polls after 6:30 pm.

The votes will be counted on June 4.