Donald Trump's Big Win Fuelled By Votes From Surprising Demographic

In Phoenix, Arizona, Jimmy Archuleta is happy with Donald Trump's victory. The car mechanic is one of a growing number of Americans of Hispanic origin cheering on the Republican's return to power.

"I don't think he's racist. He's just fed up with illegal immigrants," Archuleta told AFP. 

In the wake of Kamala Harris' historic defeat in Tuesday's election, Democrats face the difficult task of identifying the reasons for their rout.

The erosion of support from the Latino electorate, which amounted to 10 percent of the electorate in 2024, ranks high on the list.

According to an exit poll published by NBC News on Tuesday, 53 percent of voters of Hispanic origin voted for Kamala Harris in this presidential election, compared to 45 percent for Donald Trump.

This breakdown contrasts with 2020, when Joe Biden won 59 percent of their votes and Donald Trump 38 percent, according to the Pew Research Center.

But the decline isn't new.

"I think it's clear this is a progression. We've seen a trend that began in 2016 and was reaffirmed in 2020 and that has taken a step forward in 2024," Roberto Suro, a professor at the University of Southern California, told AFP.

Blue-Collar Conservatives

To explain the shift towards Trump, he cites several factors.

"The idea that Latinos would react negatively to promises of stricter immigration policies has proven false," added the academic, who said some American Latino voters were prepared to vote for harsh, even xenophobic policies.

He believes this is because they draw "a distinction between two kinds of migration," separating those with longer-standing ties to the country from other newer arrivals. 

"We see this in some of the pre-election polls, people saying 'I favor a legalization program for people who have been here for a long time and have children born here and have been working and don't have a criminal record, and who are part of the fabric of society.

"'And I want to return the recently arrived. I want a wall. I want border security. I want to send them back'," he added.

Religion, gender, and socio-economic determinants also play a role in this shift, he added.

"We've definitely seen among Mexican-American men, Evangelicals, who didn't attend college, and are working class, a consistent move toward Trump in election after election," he continued.

According to Edison Research, 54 percent of Latino male voters supported the Republican this year, compared to 36 percent in 2020.

'Improve The Economy'

This "very clear" shift toward Trump is also geographically defined, concentrated "along the border, in areas most directly affected by this new immigration," said Suro.

Interviewed on Wednesday in the streets of Phoenix, a major city in the border state of Arizona, Archuleta explained that inflation was one of the main reasons why he decided to support Trump.

"He's really a business genius, so I'm hoping he'll improve the economy," the Mexican-American told AFP.

"I just hope he'll make the price of groceries and gas more reasonable," he added.

For the 47-year-old, whose mother legally arrived from Mexico in the 1970s, the Republican will primarily target illegal immigrants, having promised to carry out mass deportations.

"I know that if someone sees me on the street, they don't know what my status is here," he said. "But for me, it's different. I'm not worried, I know I'm legal."

Archuleta didn't seem entirely convinced that the new president would follow through with mass deportations, which could threaten some of his undocumented friends.

"If they come here and get caught, it's part of the rules. They've always known the risks," he said.