With 11 games left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain 2,048 possible combinations of match results. No one is yet certain of making the playoffs, but two teams (MI and PBKS) are totally ruled out.
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We look at the chances of each team:
KKR - The team currently topping the table have a 36% chance of finishing the sole toppers and they could do that even with just one win from their remaining three games.
Their chances of finishing joint toppers on points are an impressive 62.5%. At worst they can finish tied for third spot. Yet, they are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied third with any two of CSK, DC and LSG depending on results in other games, leaving it to net run rates to see who goes through. But there's just a 0.2% chance of such a scenario.
RR - Like KKR, they have a 36% chance of being sole toppers at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for the first spot on points. Yet, they too are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied third with any two of CSK, DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But again, there's just a 0.8% chance of such a scenario.
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SRH - Currently in third place, SRH have nearly 97% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. The best they can hope for is a joint first spot with one or two other teams and the chances of that are a little over 2%.
CSK - In fourth place despite Friday's loss, CSK have a little over 56% chance of finishing within the top four slots either singly or jointly. The best they can do is tied for second spot with one to three other teams. And the chances of that are just 7%.
DC - Fifth placed DC have no chance of finishing the toppers or even joint toppers. Their chances of ending up among the top four singly or jointly are about 58%. Their best case scenario is joint second on points and there's a little under 5% chance of that happening.
LSG - Sixth placed LSG's chances of making the top four singly or jointly are also about 58%. Like DC, the best they can do is tie for the second spot with one to three other teams. The chances of that happening are just under 5%.
RCB - RCB remain in seventh place and their chances of finishing among the top four on points, singly or jointly, are a tad over 20%. Their best case scenario is joint third with two to five other teams and the chances of that are a little under 5%.
GT - With Friday's win, GT have climbed off the bottom of the table, but their chances of making it to the top four on points, singly or jointly, are still under 16%. Their best case scenario is joint third with three to five other teams and there's a less than 5% chance of that happening.
PBKS- Their run for the playoffs have ended. Even the chances of a joint fifth spot are a lowly 0.6%.
MI - MI too are out of the playoffs. They can at best end up joint 5th and even that is just a 1.2% chance.
In short: Bet on KKR and RR making the playoffs and SRH most likely to join them, leaving CSK, LSG and DC battling it out for the fourth spot. For RCB or GT to get into the mix would need many results to go their way.
How we calculate the chances
With 11 games remaining, there remain 2,048 possible combinations of match outcomes. We look at each one of those and what it would mean in terms of the final rankings of the teams. Then we work out the percentage of outcomes that would give team "A" a chance of finishing in the top four, or the first spot and so on. The underlying assumption is that any given match is a 50-50 game, not unreasonable given how the IPL has unfolded this year and in other years. For instance, of the 2,048 combinations, GT finish among the top four slots singly or jointly in only 320 combinations, which means a 15.6% chance of making the top four spots singly or jointly.
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