Cooling inflation, narrowing spreads are pushing mortgage rates lower

Favorable economic trends are helping mortgage rates continue the downward trend they’ve been on for the past few months.

HousingWire‘s Mortgage Rates Center showed that the average 30-year conforming loan rate was 7.06% on Tuesday, down from 7.11% a week earlier. The 15-year conforming loan rate showed an even larger pullback, declining from 6.90% to 6.79% during the week.

That data comes on the heels of cooling inflation numbers. Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that prices for goods and services declined by 0.1% from May to June. They rose 3% on an annualized basis, the slowest rate of growth in more than three years.

More good news for the housing and mortgage industries arrived Monday through remarks delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. At an event in Washington, D.C., Powell indicated that policymakers would not wait for inflation to reach 2% before making cuts to benchmark rates. The federal funds rate has been in a target range of 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023.

“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%,” Powell said, according to reporting by CNBC.

According to the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, analysts believe there is a 93% chance that rates will remain unchanged after the Fed’s meeting at the end of July. But 100% of analysts have penciled in a cut in September.

HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami believes that mortgage rates could fall to 6% if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to recede. The spread between the 10-year yield and the 30-year rate narrowed to 2.62% last week, down from a recent peak of 3.1% in June 2023.

Mohtashami said that mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher today if the highest levels of spreads from last year were incorporated today. The shrinking spreads are correlating with a rise in purchase mortgage applications.

“The last time we saw 12 weeks of positive trending purchase app growth was when mortgage rates reached 6%,“ Mohtashami wrote Saturday. “Purchase apps have been positive for four out of the last five weeks and mortgage rates aren’t even near 6%. Now, context is critical because we are working from the lowest bar ever, so it doesn’t take much to move the needle higher with purchase apps, as the last five weeks have shown.“

With mortgage rates stubbornly remaining above 7% for all of 2024, home-price growth has cooled and supply has increased in many areas of the country.

According to data released Tuesday by First American, U.S. home prices grew by 5.6% year over year in June. It marked the sixth straight month that the annualized appreciation rate has slowed.

Anaheim, California, led the way among the metro areas analyzed by First American with 10.2% price growth compared to June 2023. Miami (8.9%), Pittsburgh (6.5%), Las Vegas (6.4%) and San Diego (6.2%) each exceeded the national average rate of appreciation.

“Elevated mortgage rates continue to keep homeowners rate locked-in, while reducing affordability for potential first-time home buyers,” Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American, said in a statement. “The resulting pullback in demand coincided with an uptick in supply, which is cooling price growth. However, housing remains fundamentally undersupplied nationally, which will keep a floor on how low house price appreciation can fall.”

Data from Altos Research shows that the supply of single-family homes for sale shrank slightly last week to 651,000. That figure is up 38.5% year over year but is still 32% below the pre-pandemic figure of July 2019. Altos also noted that the share of listings with a price cut has grown to 38.3%.

“If we get lucky and mortgage rates ease from here on out for the rest of the year, then one place we’ll measure a rebound in demand will be fewer price cuts,“ Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, wrote on Monday. “When you list your home, if you don’t get the offers, you cut your price. But when a few more offers are made by newly affordably mortgages for buyers, then this stat will plateau and even tick down.“