Bangladesh
PM Sheikh Hasina
is all set to win her fourth consecutive term in office as India’s eastern neighbour votes on Sunday in polls backed by India and China but seen as lacking in credibility by the West, particularly the US. With the main opposition party,
BNP
, not contesting because its demand for a ``level-playing field’’ under a caretaker government wasn’t met, the outcome is seen by most observers both in
Dhaka
and abroad as a foregone conclusion.
For India, as it looks to jointly combat violent extremism and radicalization, fanned often by external forces, Hasina’s return is key to peace and stability in the region. India has worked to impress on the US, which has imposed sanctions on Bangladesh nationals involved in undermining the democratic election process, the need to work with the ruling
Awami League
(AL) in a dangerously polarized country.
The US seems to have relented for now, realising perhaps the inevitability of Hasina’s return. However, things could change if the polls do lead to widespread protests and violence, lending weight to the Opposition's claim that the election was farcical. The challenge for India would be to ensure Washington doesn’t take any punitive measures, like restricting Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the US, that could lead to economic instability in the country, especially at a time its economy seems wobbly. Any extreme reaction could also enable Beijing to expand further its economic footprint in Bangladesh.
In that sense, the outcome of the elections for 300 seats in Parliament (remaining 50 are reserved for women) is not as much a concern for India as the need to control the fallout of any lack of acceptance for Hasina both in Bangladesh and in the West. For the elections to be credible, it’s important for both Hasina, and of course India, that the turnout is decent on Sunday. ``More than the number of seats, it’s the turnout that will matter,’’ said a diplomatic source.
India’s interests, for once, seem more aligned with China, a country Hasina has handled deftly by engaging with it economically but without antagonizing India, than with the US. As the Bangladesh polls turn into a geopolitical slugfest, India will also be looking at how Russia reacts. Moscow has accused the US of working to instigate anti-government protests in Bangladesh.
The BNP has slammed the ruling AL for stage-managing the elections by putting up ``dummy’’ independent candidates, mostly from AL, to legitimize the exercise. It has accused India of interfering on behalf of Hasina but the Indian government has chosen to not publicly make any comment on the polls. The MEA said last week it’s a domestic affair of Bangladesh and it’s for the people of the country to decide their future. Three officials of the Election Commission of India are among international experts who have been invited to observe the elections.
Despite Hasina’s popularity having taken a beating in recent times, and even though it believes she could have done a better job of countering extremism ideologically, India has had no option but to back her, given BNP’s history of animosity with India. Aware of some of the negative sentiments in Dhaka over India’s support for Hasina, the government has worked to expedite work on people-centric projects. Ahead of the elections, in November 2023, Hasina and her counterpart Narendra Modi inaugurated 3 such projects meant to enhance connectivity and energy security in Bangladesh.
English (US) ·