Ahead of the Lok Sabha polls 2024, the shifting political equations in Delhi

With the 2024 Lok Sabha elections not too far away, political activity in Delhi has intensified significantly. The relationship between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress, previously considered the most challenging within the INDIA bloc, a coalition of opposition parties, appears to be the first to show signs of agreement.

After two rounds of talks between the two parties, the sudden meeting between Arvind Kejriwal, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Rahul Gandhi took everyone by surprise. Amidst the cold and foggy weather in Delhi, the political atmosphere seems to be clearing up. The discussions weren’t limited to Delhi but extended to influencing politics in several other states.

Meanwhile, Arvind Kejriwal received his fourth summons from the Enforcement Directorate, and on the same day, January 18, on which he was supposed to appear, he scheduled his election campaign in Goa.

BEYOND SEAT SHARING

Although there is ongoing discussion about seat-sharing amongst the coalition partners, Kejriwal’s unexpected visit to Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge's house, and Rahul Gandhi's participation in the meeting were more significant.

The meeting between Rahul Gandhi and Arvind Kejriwal is seen as a game-changer because when the central government issued an ordinance in May reducing the powers of the Delhi government, despite several requests, Rahul Gandhi had not given time for a meeting. Although Congress opposed the bill in Parliament, there was ongoing speculation about a rift in the chemistry between Kejriwal and Rahul.

This became particularly relevant when Rahul Gandhi vetoed against a coalition with AAP during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, preventing any alliance at the time. However, this time, Congress softened its stance towards Kejriwal, who played a significant role in advancing Kharge’s name as the chairman of the INDIA coalition parties.

The importance of this meeting was immediately apparent when both parties decided to jointly contest the mayoral election in Chandigarh. Notably, AAP had performed well in the Chandigarh municipal elections two years ago but failed to secure the mayor’s position due to a lack of support from Congress.

CONGRESS AND AAP COMING TOGETHER

There is still uncertainty regarding coalitions in several states. In states like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar, discussions on seat-sharing are either not progressing or are delayed. In contrast, Congress and AAP have moved significantly forward on seat distribution in Delhi.

While the formula is ready in Delhi, AAP is seeking some seats from Congress in other states, excluding Punjab, where both parties have almost decided to contest separately as BJP’s presence is limited to a few seats.

Discussions are ongoing for states like Gujarat, Haryana, and Goa. AAP, which has elected MLAs in Gujarat and Goa and is eyeing elections in Haryana – Kejriwal's home state – is showing generosity in Delhi, expecting reciprocal gestures in Gujarat and even Haryana.

However, Congress has not yet agreed to this proposal and is deciding after consulting its state units.

Kejriwal’s strategy of being magnanimous in Delhi appears to be a part of his wider strategy to demand seats from Congress in other states, as he recently announced his candidate for Bharuch, Gujarat.

HOW WILL CONGRESS'S REACT TO AAP'S SOFT HINDUTVA?

While Congress announced its decision not to participate in the Pran Pratishtha of the Ram Temple, AAP has challenged BJP on its turf by deciding to conduct the Sunderkand Path across Delhi every Tuesday. This move by Kejriwal might create difficulties for Congress leaders.

AAP believes that they must respond to BJP in its style or else BJP will again capitalise on emotional issues in the election campaign. In the coming times, Congress will certainly observe AAP's stance before determining how strong the coalition really is.

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