After Seat-Share Deal High, Cross-Voting Upsets INDIA In Rajya Sabha Poll

The INDIA bloc finished last week on a high after the Congress sealed a pan-India seat-share deal with the Aam Aadmi Party, and another with the Samajwadi Party for Uttar Pradesh, ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The Congress-led bloc was also close to an accord with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Nationalist Congress Party (SCP) in Maharashtra and reached out to Bengal's Trinamool.

Confidence in the opposition ranks, therefore, was high going into Tuesday's Rajya Sabha poll.

That confidence took a hit by close of voting after six Congress MLAs in Himachal Pradesh, as well as three independent MLAs, and seven Samajwadi Party lawmakers in Uttar Pradesh cross-voted.

READ | Cross-Voting In Himachal, Tight Race In UP In Rajya Sabha Polls

Unsurprisingly, the 16 votes went to Bharatiya Janata Party candidates, with the party now set to claim one additional seat in each state and receive a prestige boost ahead of the Lok Sabha election.

There are also whispers of cross-voting in Karnataka, another Congress-ruled state, and one in which a BJP ally - the Janata Dal (Secular) has fielded a fifth candidate where there are only four on offer.

These defeats - discounting the fact it strengthens the BJP's hand - underlines the extent of the challenge facing INDIA in the general election, in which the BJP plans to win 370 seats on its own.

The defeats will also make the Congress' task of negotiating seat-share deals in other states even harder. The party is already under pressure - the stand-off with Mamata Banerjee in Bengal is a good example - to scale down its demands with allies pointing to its recent dismal electoral track record.

A significant point in all of this is two of the three states in which the BJP forced an election - and has now won two additional Rajya Sabha seats - are ruled by eternal rivals, the Congress.

Himachal Pradesh Rajya Sabha Election

The Congress swept to power in the hill state just under two years ago; the party won 40 of 68 Assembly seats in a rare big (and solo) win for the party. The BJP won just 25 seats.

There was only seat that fell vacant in this round of polling.

The Congress nominated Abhishek Singhvi since his Bengal seat term was expiring. Mr Singhvi needed only 35 votes to be confirmed as a Rajya Sabha MP from Himachal Pradesh.

The Congress should have closed this poll in double-quick time. However, the two sides are now at 34 votes each after six Congress MLAs (and three independents) voted for the BJP candidate instead.

READ | Congress Has "Lost Majority" In Himachal: BJP's Jairam Thakur

A further fallout sees the BJP now claiming the Congress government is in the minority, and talk of a floor test less than halfway through a five-year term, is now being discussed.

Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha Election

There are 10 Rajya Sabha seats available in the state this year.

Of these, the BJP, with 252 MLAs on its books (plus 18 allied votes), has seven seats locked, while the SP, with 108 lawmakers and a handful from its allies, was looking at a three-seat return.

Now it appears the BJP will claim an eighth seat, thanks to seven cross-voting Samajwadi Party MLAs and support from Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal.

The RLD is an INDIA member for now, but is expected to switch to the BJP-led alliance shortly.

READ | In Rajya Sabha Poll, Akhilesh Yadav Says 3rd Seat Bid Was "Test"

Mr Yadav - who was dealt a shock early this morning (and a clear sign of what was to come) after his Chief Whip and three MLAs were spotted with Deputy Chief Minister Brajesh Pathak - has now claimed the fielding of a third candidate was a "test" to identify "true companions..." he said on X.

Karnataka Rajya Sabha Election

The southern state - also Congress-ruled - has four seats falling vacant.

The ruling party was expected to claim the three it held without fuss, since it has 134 MLAs to the 85 between the BJP and its ally, the Janata Dal (Secular), and needed only one more to do just that.

The BJP has enough - 45 votes are needed - to retain its one seat. The cat among the pigeons was the BJP-backed JDS fielding Kupendra Reddy, who could ride on second-preference votes to win.

A sliver of good news for the opposition, though. BJP MLA ST Somashekar has cross-voted too - in favour of the Congress - his party has confirmed, adding legal options are being explored.

READ | Karnataka BJP MLA Votes For Congress In Rajya Sabha Poll

Rest Of India

Apart from these, 41 seats have been filled unopposed.

The list includes former Congress boss Sonia Gandhi, who leaves her seat in the party stronghold of Raebareli in UP - maybe to Priyanaka Gandhi Vadra - after holding it since she won it in 2004.

READ | Sonia Gandhi Shifts To Rajya Sabha. End Of Era, Big Change For Congress

BJP boss JP Nadda has been moved from Himachal Pradesh - after the party lost the state - to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat. Union ministers Ashwini Vaishnaw (Odisha) and L Murugan (Madhya Pradesh) were also elected without fuss, as was ex-Congressman Ashok Chavan.

Mr Chavan, with the Congress for decades, quit two weeks ago and joined the BJP hours later.

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