Advance GDP estimates: India likely to report higher growth for FY24

India is expected to announce a higher economic growth projection of around 7 per cent for the fiscal year 2023/24 in its advance GDP estimates, which will be released by the National Statistical Office on Friday at 5:30 pm.

If the GDP estimates for FY24 are revised upwards, it would align with the Reserve Bank of India's recent adjustment of its growth forecast to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year, up from the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent.

RBI's Deputy Governor Michael Patra noted that the revised growth forecast was conservative, considering robust growth indicators in October and November.

In the September quarter, India's economy exceeded expectations by growing 7.6 per cent year-on-year, following a 7.8 per cent growth in the previous quarter.

Several private economists from ratings agencies have subsequently adjusted their yearly growth estimates upward.

S&P Global Ratings anticipates that India will maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy over the next three years, positioning itself as the world's third-largest economy by 2030.

S&P projects India's growth at 6.4 per cent for the current fiscal year, with an estimated increase to 7 per cent by fiscal 2027.

In contrast, China's growth is expected to slow to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent this year, according to S&P Global Ratings.

Despite the positive economic outlook, economists suggest that the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) is unlikely to reduce the benchmark policy rate of 6.5 per cent in the coming quarters due to the risk of food inflation spikes in the election year.